Speaking at the Association of the United States Army’s Shaping the Force Symposium in El Paso, Texas, on Dec. 6, Geren said globalization will continue and accelerate which will mean that information, goods and weapons will flow faster and in greater volume, and thus they will have greater potential to fall into the wrong hands.

New wealth around the world will threaten to destroy local culture and traditions, and people will be “left behind,” he said. Those people will be a prime target for radical groups who will be looking to expound their anti-U.S. and anti-Western views.

Islamic extremists in particular want to eliminate U.S. influence from their homelands and spread their view of Islam beyond the borders of those countries, he said.

“It doesn’t matter whether we believe they can accomplish their ends, it matters if they believe they can accomplish those ends, and they are willing to work for generations to do that,” he said. “They’re patient and they’re willing to kill innocent people in the pursuit of their goals.”

Technology will be the weapon of aggression for these radicals, and groups such as al Qaeda will have greater reach than in the past, Geren said.

Al Qaeda is seeking weapons of mass destruction, too, and Geren quoted Deputy Secretary of Defense Gordon England in saying that the reason al Qaeda members killed 3,000 people on 9/11 is because they couldn’t kill more.

However, Geren noted how Hezbollah showed how conventional anti-ship and anti-tank weapons could be used against a technologically advance force during its conflict with Israel in 2006.

“The success of Hezbollah has fueled the ambitions of like-minded groups once intimidated by the military might of the United States and our allies,” he said.

Another problem is that most of the world’s oil is controlled by nation states, and they can use it as leverage to pursue political and strategic objectives as opposed to consumer demands, Geren said.

“Oil is a powerful strategic weapon in the hands of those with whom we may one day find ourselves at odds,” he said.

Climate change and natural disasters could also give rise to conflict, Geren said. Technology and transportation can be used to mitigate the impact these events, but it can also work the other way, such as Somalia and Haiti in the early 1990s when humanitarian relief efforts were exploited.

“We step into the chaos of a governed or barely governed society, and our military often carries the lion’s share of that burden,” he said.

The Army is working toward “full spectrum readiness,” to be ready for whatever the future holds, Geren said. Programs such as the Future Combat System are part of that readiness, and the Army is on its way to bringing that technology to fruition.